Key Notes
- Prospective investors are challenging the valuation sought for Anthropic’s planned IPO after a sharp selloff in AI and technology shares.
- One investor has suggested a figure closer to one trillion dollars, while the expected November roadshow and listing face renewed uncertainty.
- Anthropic has not announced a final offering valuation or a postponement, and its latest filing leaves the share price and number of shares open.
The next big test of the AI boom may come down to a price that investors are willing to pay. Anthropic is facing fresh resistance to a proposed $1.5 trillion IPO valuation after Thursday’s technology-stock selloff, with one prospective investor suggesting the figure could land closer to $1 trillion.
The Wall Street Journal reported that three major investors planning to participate believe the valuation needs to fall. The company had been aiming to list before Thanksgiving and raise as much as $100 billion. Neither a $1 trillion valuation nor a postponement has been announced by Anthropic.
A Bigger Discount Is Now on the Table
That would mark another substantial retreat from the roughly $2 trillion expectations discussed earlier this year. We reported this week that prospective buyers were already pushing for a range around $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion. A figure closer to $1 trillion would take the negotiations into a different bracket.
Moving from $1.5 trillion to $1 trillion would reduce the proposed valuation by one-third; compared with $2 trillion, it would halve it. Those calculations describe alternative prices for the business, rather than money disappearing from its bank account. MarketSpeaker’s latest IPO coverage traces the investor pushback and the distinction between a smaller valuation and a smaller offering.
A lower price can make the shares more attractive to buyers while requiring the company to sell a larger ownership stake to raise the same amount. A smaller transaction can reduce the supply of stock investors must absorb, but it also brings in less funding. Those choices become more difficult when market prices are moving sharply during the negotiations.
The November Window Is Tight
Reuters separately reported that potential buyers were questioning whether Anthropic could begin its roadshow next week and complete a November listing. The expected schedule called for marketing during the week of November 9 and pricing the following week, ahead of Thanksgiving on November 26. Anthropic declined to comment to Reuters on the investor doubts.
The roadshow is an important opportunity for management to explain the business and for bankers to gauge demand. A disagreement over valuation does not automatically derail an IPO, but it can leave the company choosing between a discount and a longer wait. Reuters said investors were also looking for October revenue figures, which were left blank in the updated filing.
Thursday’s market rout made that conversation harder. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.36%, according to MarketSpeaker’s closing report. For an AI company seeking a large public offering, declines across listed technology businesses give prospective buyers a reason to demand more room for error in the price.
Claude’s Growth Still Comes With a Large Computing Bill
Anthropic’s amended prospectus shows why the company remains a major draw. Third-quarter revenue reached $16.956 billion, up from $11.555 billion in the second quarter. Compute and infrastructure expenses rose faster over the same period, climbing to $9.863 billion from $5.558 billion.
The filing also details approximately $895.4 billion in purchase and lease commitments, substantially all for computing and infrastructure. The total stretches across many years, largely through 2045, with about $69.8 billion due in the year after September 30. It is not a bill payable all at once, but it shows how much future growth the company is preparing to support.
As our earnings coverage explained, the headline net loss also includes large financing-related accounting charges. Investors need to assess operating performance and cash requirements separately. The company’s preliminary offering terms still leave the share count and price range open, and identify ANT as the proposed Nasdaq symbol.
The immediate question is whether demand for Claude can persuade institutions to commit at a price Anthropic accepts while the November window remains open. Strong sales give management a case to make. The selloff has made buyers more demanding about what they will pay for the growth still to come.
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