Privately-held AI companies, particularly OpenAI, are facing heightened investor scrutiny in 2026 as attention shifts from user growth to profitability, according to a note from Deutsche Bank on Jan. 20. Analysts Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan described the year as “make or break” for companies whose main business is providing AI models.
OpenAI’s reported cash burn reached $9 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $17 billion this year. While the company reported revenue of over $20 billion last year, up from $6 billion in 2024, only a fraction of its roughly 800 million weekly users are paying customers. The company has raised billions in funding from strategic partners such as Microsoft and Nvidia, as well as from investment firms including SoftBank, Coatue, Altimeter, and Thrive. Its estimated valuation stands at around $500 billion.
Scaling Challenges and Capital Commitments
OpenAI has committed to data center projects totaling approximately $1.4 trillion, underscoring the capital-intensive nature of its operations. Analysts caution that the company’s path to profitability remains dependent on controlling compute costs, improving enterprise monetization, and converting a larger portion of its user base into paying customers.
The company is reportedly preparing for a potential IPO in late 2026 or early 2027. Deutsche Bank analysts note that competition from larger tech firms with diversified revenue streams may put pressure on OpenAI’s margins, while smaller independent AI companies may struggle to absorb rising compute costs. Competitors such as Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI employees, are also rumored to be targeting public listings this year.
Business Model Adjustments and Legal Context
In recent weeks, OpenAI announced plans to test advertising within ChatGPT, a move previously described by CEO Sam Altman in 2024 as a “last resort.” Meanwhile, Apple opted on Jan. 12 to power its AI products with Google’s Gemini platform, signaling ongoing competitive shifts in the AI ecosystem.
Adding to the company’s legal landscape, Elon Musk filed a lawsuit against OpenAI in late 2025, alleging that the organization violated certain governance and financial agreements. While the case is ongoing, it underscores the increasing scrutiny that high-profile AI developers face from investors, founders, and former backers alike.
