Corporate investment in AI continues to surge, but top financial leaders warn the spending may be outpacing revenue generation. HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery and General Atlantic Chairman and CEO William Ford said that while AI’s long-term potential is clear, current business returns do not yet justify the scale of capital being deployed.
Speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, Elhedery said companies face a challenge as they invest heavily in compute infrastructure that consumers and businesses are not yet ready to pay premiums for. He noted that the productivity benefits of AI will take several years to materialize, making revenue growth slower than investor expectations.
The warning comes as projections show massive capital requirements to sustain global compute expansion. Morgan Stanley estimates data center capacity will expand sixfold over the next five years, requiring $3 trillion in spending by 2028. A McKinsey report forecasts AI-focused data centers alone will need $5.2 trillion in capital by 2030, compared with $1.5 trillion for those supporting traditional applications.
Ford echoed the sentiment, saying that although AI could eventually create new industries and long-term productivity gains, the payoff may take 10 to 20 years. He cautioned that heavy spending upfront could bring periods of capital misallocation and destruction of value as companies race to secure compute capabilities and market position.
Big Tech firms are already lifting investment guidance sharply. Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon collectively expect capital expenditures of more than $380 billion this year as they scale infrastructure for cloud-based AI services. OpenAI, which accelerated the current boom with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, has announced around $1 trillion in infrastructure agreements with partners including Nvidia, Oracle, and Broadcom.
Ford said this spending reflects a recognition of the transformative nature of AI but acknowledged that identifying future winners remains difficult. He compared the technology to foundational innovations such as railroads and electricity, which reshaped the economy over time but were unpredictable in their early years.
Industry leaders expect that while AI will ultimately deliver new revenue streams, the near-term financial gap may widen as demand and pricing lag behind the pace of infrastructure development. The sector’s capital-intensive evolution could lead to volatility before broader economic benefits emerge.
