The International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, citing easing U.S. trade tensions and a continued boom in artificial intelligence investment that is supporting asset values and productivity expectations. The revised outlook is up 0.2 percentage point from the IMF’s October estimate and matches its upgraded 2025 forecast.
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the global economy has proven resilient as businesses adapted to higher U.S. tariffs by rerouting supply chains and as new trade deals lowered some duties. The Fund now assumes an effective U.S. tariff rate of 18.5%, down from about 25% earlier this year.
AI investment was a key driver behind upgrades to several major economies. The IMF raised its 2026 U.S. growth forecast to 2.4%, citing heavy spending on data centers, advanced chips, and power infrastructure. Technology investment also lifted outlooks for Spain and helped stabilize projections for Britain.
While warning that an overheated AI boom could fuel inflation or trigger market corrections if productivity gains disappoint, the IMF said successful AI adoption could lift global growth by up to 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and provide a meaningful boost over the medium term.
