Only 5% of automakers are expected to maintain strong growth in AI investments by 2029, down sharply from over 95% today, according to Gartner. Much of the current enthusiasm, the firm warned, is built on weak foundations.
“The automotive sector is experiencing a period of AI euphoria, where many companies aim for disruptive value before building strong AI foundations,” said Pedro Pacheco, VP Analyst at Gartner. Companies with strong software capabilities, data maturity, and long-term strategic focus are most likely to succeed and widen the competitive gap across the industry.
Gartner also forecast major changes in manufacturing. By 2030, at least one automaker could achieve fully automated vehicle assembly, with nearly half of the top 25 global automakers already piloting advanced robotics. “Automated vehicle assembly helps reduce labor costs, improve quality, and shorten production cycles,” said Marco Sandrone, VP Analyst. While automation may reduce direct human involvement, AI supervision, robotics maintenance, and software development roles could partly offset job losses if companies focus on reskilling.
The announcement follows growing industry debate over the sustainability of AI hype in automotive manufacturing, as companies rush to implement AI without strong foundational capabilities. The cautionary note comes as autonomous vehicle safety concerns continue to emerge, highlighted by Waymo facing an NHTSA probe after its robotaxis reportedly drove past stopped school buses.
