Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Oak Ridge National Laboratory released the Iceberg Index, a labor simulation tool estimating that AI can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce, representing $1.2 trillion in wages. The study analyzes 151 million workers, 32,000 skills, and 923 occupations, revealing exposure across finance, healthcare, professional services, and administrative roles.
The Iceberg Index maps AI capabilities against worker skills to simulate how automation and AI adoption could affect employment, providing policymakers a detailed, zip code–level view for planning reskilling and training investments. Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah have used the model to guide workforce strategies, with Tennessee citing it in its AI Workforce Action Plan.
Researchers stress the tool is not a prediction engine but a forward-looking snapshot to test policy scenarios and identify vulnerable sectors. The findings highlight that AI’s impact is not limited to tech hubs and includes inland and rural regions often overlooked in automation debates.
The study complements recent reports on AI-driven workforce shifts, including Amazon’s engineering layoffs, warnings of job losses from China’s DeepSeek conference, and projections of low-skilled job reductions in the U.K.
