Japan’s SoftBank Group is expected to post a healthy profit from its investment in OpenAI when it releases quarterly results on Thursday, even as investor focus remains on how the firm will fund its ongoing artificial intelligence spending. SoftBank invested over $30 billion in OpenAI in 2025, raising its ownership to approximately 11%, and is reportedly in discussions to contribute up to another $30 billion in the U.S. AI company’s latest funding round.
SoftBank’s exposure to OpenAI has led analysts to view the Japanese conglomerate as a publicly traded proxy for the AI firm. Concerns have emerged about concentration risk and the potential impact on SoftBank’s financial position, given OpenAI’s continuing losses despite its rapid string of multi-billion-dollar deals.
“The reality for SoftBank shareholders at the moment is that their fortune is tied with OpenAI,” said Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor and infrastructure research at Futurum Equities. “Even if they do another $50 billion round they are going to require more funding in the coming years. The likes of Amazon and Google are spending well in excess of $100 billion per year in capex.”
Investment Gains and Valuation
SoftBank’s aggressive bet on OpenAI follows a familiar pattern for founder and CEO Masayoshi Son, who favors high-conviction investments in companies yet to turn a profit. Analysts estimate SoftBank will record an investment gain of $4.45 billion from a $22.5 billion tranche completed in December. LSEG surveys of five analysts project quarterly net income ranging from a gain of 1.1 trillion yen ($7.07 billion) to a loss of 480 billion yen.
While recent funding rounds have raised OpenAI’s valuation, analysts note that these gains are largely unrealized on paper. SoftBank shares have shown volatility, rising about 2% in 2026 so far, though they are down roughly 15% over the past three months.
Financing the AI Commitments
Investors are scrutinizing SoftBank’s ability to finance additional OpenAI investments, as the firm has already sold some of its most liquid assets. In the September quarter, SoftBank offloaded $5.8 billion of Nvidia shares and part of its T-Mobile stake for $9.17 billion. The company has also increased debt levels, raising its leverage ratio from 16.5% in September to 21.5% at the end of December, according to Nomura senior credit strategist Shogo Tono.
Even if OpenAI’s latest funding round achieves a target valuation of $830 billion, Tono estimates that SoftBank’s leverage ratio would only decrease to about 19.2%, reflecting the substantial financial commitment required for continued AI investments. Analysts say the firm will need to balance its ambition in AI with careful management of liquidity and leverage, particularly given the volatility in technology markets and SoftBank’s high concentration in OpenAI.
Outlook
SoftBank’s results are likely to highlight both the immediate gains from its AI investments and the longer-term questions surrounding funding and risk management. Investors will closely watch disclosures on capital allocation and future investment plans, which could signal how the conglomerate intends to maintain its aggressive AI strategy without overextending its balance sheet.